patrick.net

Call it Crazy says

That would be a very good suggestion.

Geometric progressions and all.

Mindblowing Exponential Growth Of A Pandemic

It’s 1pm. Imagine a normal sized football stadium. In this stadium you are sitting on the seat at the very top of the stadium, with the best overview of the whole stadium.

To make things more interesting, imagine the stadium is completely water-tight.

The question is, if a drop of water is added to the stadium and then one minute later it doubles in size to two drops, and then one minute after that it doubles again to 4 drops, and so on.. doubling in size every minute, how much time do you have to leave your seat and get out of the stadium before the water reaches your seat at the very top?

Think about it for a moment. Is it hours, days, weeks, months?

The first drop of water lands right in the middle of the field, at 1pm.

You have exactly until 1:49pm. It takes less than 50 minutes to fill a whole football stadium with water! This is impressive!

But it gets better:
At what time do you think the football stadium is still 93% empty? Take a guess.

The answer: At 1:45pm. So, you sit and watch the drop growing, and after 45 minutes all you see is the playing field covered with water. And then, within four more minutes, the water fills the whole stadium.

This means that you think you are safe because it seems that you have plenty of time left, whereas due to the exponential growth you really have to take immediate action if you want to have any chance of getting out of this situation.

http://modernsurvivalblog.com/pandemic/mindblowing-exponential-growth-of-a-pandemic/

Might not be a joking matter...

Call it Crazy says

In one area, an Ebola clinic is turning away more people daily than they can take in. Want to guess where those turned away people go and how many others they pass the virus onto before they die?

I hear ya, the disease is spread through mucous membrane or blood. I don't know what that means in terms of the spread rate?

The fact that it is dormant for 21 days means people could travel without knowing they had it. Does it transfer only in the final stages?

We should really ban flights from Africa. They never bring anything good here.

FortWayne says

We should really ban flights from Africa.

That is one I would move on NOW. Of course O will wait until it is too late.

That is a problem.

If the people want to attack health workers maybe it is time to use force and flame throwers. Or violate quarantines force would be in order.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/1_WOR22-SnY

Call it Crazy says

So, do you think this will end well?

Like I said...

Damn that video shows some nasty shit, spread by mosquitoes too?

Does this count as a Black Swan?

--------------------------------------------------------

Modern Bio-weapon orchestration......who would've thunk!!!

Mandatory RFID micro chipping is the next agenda
http://m.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/18/executive-order-combating-antibiotic-resistant-bacteria

JodyChunder says

I had ebola once. I shook it. Gotta rub your entire body down in kerosene and eat three full-size raw onions a day for a week. Presto. Good as new.

Well that explains what you've been up to for the past few months.

Call it Crazy says

Based on the incubation time and the connectivity with air travel, my bet is that's it's here before the end of the year.

Its already been here:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/21/health/ebola-patient-release/

Call it Crazy says

When has anything the government put it's hands on gotten better instead of worse?

Libraries.

Bubbabear says

Does this count as a Black Swan?

--------------------------------------------------------

Modern Bio-weapon orchestration......who would've thunk!!!

Mandatory RFID micro chipping is the next agenda

http://m.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/18/executive-order-combating-antibiotic-resistant-bacteria

Well we still have bacteriophages:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3278644/

Lets see, Ebola is a virus... baceriophages are viruses.

Hmmm....

indigenous says

Geometric progressions and all.

Mindblowing Exponential Growth Of A Pandemic

Math troll if I ever saw one. Or maybe it's just the usual, indigenous pretending to be smarter than he is, and accidentally revealing his ignorance to us.

Some of the talk quoted in the OPs piece seems alarmist "doubling in three weeks" but then again, it might not be that much of an exaggeration.

I wonder why the previous outbreaks since 1976 weren't as bad.

Here's a graph of the 2014 outbreak from Wikipedia.

So even if Tyler's quote is an exaggeration, it does seem that this is about to become a much bigger and much worse story. As for coming here ? Somehow I doubt it. I think it's a tropical thing, at least so far.

You right wingers can find a silver lining in this. Right wingers tend to be motivated by fear more than anything else, and this is going to be a very huge story by November, maybe getting the base out in record numbers because of the alarming talk of this blowing up into a global thing.

In any case, let's all hope that the curve doesn't continue looking so exponential, if for no other reason than the plight of so many Africans.

zzyzzx says

It's all Obama's fault!!!

Or at least black people's fault!!!

What an asshole.

humanity says

ndigenous pretending to be smarter than he is

How would you know?

humanity says

Right wingers tend to be motivated by fear more than anything else, and this is going to be a very huge story by November, maybe getting the base out in record numbers because of the alarming tal of this blowing up into a global thing.

Yup you saw through the straw man, hard to out smart you.

As far as Nov goes the conservative are far more frightened of Obama than any virus...

indigenous says

humanity says

Right wingers tend to be motivated by fear more than anything else, and this is going to be a very huge story by November, maybe getting the base out in record numbers because of the alarming tal of this blowing up into a global thing.

Yup you saw through the straw man, hard to out smart you.

I guess he doesn't know what straw man means either ?

I can only guess that you are implying that I am implying that this isn't real. It's obviously real, and nowhere did I imply that it isn't. Just noting that if you think people are getting alarmed now, just wait a month (that is if the growth pattern holds). Hopefully it won't, but the numbers will be way way worse by then, even if it doesn't.

humanity says

Just noting that if you think people are getting alarmed now, just wait a month (that is if the growth pattern holds). Hopefully it won't, but the numbers will be way way worse by then, even if it doesn't.

Tremendous grasp of the obvious.

humanity says

zzyzzx says

It's all Obama's fault!!!

Or at least black people's fault!!!

What an asshole.

You fail to see that z is waxing ironic, much as you mutts do about the lefties.

indigenous says

you mutts

What ? Do you see yourself as some kind of a pure bred or something ?

My guess is,...more like inbred.

I heard that when you and your girlfriend broke up, she said you could still be cousins though.

humanity says

indigenous says

you mutts

What ? Do you see yourself as some kind of a pure bred or something ?

My guess is,...more like inbred.

Not fair, his family didn't always marry brother and sister. Sometimes they wed to first cousins. There are area's where people honestly don't realize there is an age where you are supposed to stop sleeping with your parents.

humanity says

In any case, let's all hope that the curve doesn't continue looking so exponential, if for no other reason than the plight of so many Africans.

Exponential trends are a limited time offer, otherwise humanity would have already died of AIDS.

New Renter says

Saved for posterity.

Taken out of context I see...

Quigley says

Yeah, I had that whole star crunch skin-thing going on, too. Make you up a liniment of chimney soot mixed with bacon fat -- slather it on. Gone.

I really think this is just a case of media sensationalization. No big deal, gang.

Next up -- Bovine Spongiform and how to cure that overnight with paint thinner and buttermilk

If we are doomed, then no need for affairs to be in order.
they'll be no one around to appreciate it.

indigenous says

You're right we are doomed, time to get the affairs in order.

SoftShell says

If we are doomed, then no need for affairs to be in order.

they'll be no one around to appreciate it.

50% do survive

depends on the temperature of the air.
each drop would evaporate given sufficient heat in a minute.
and would escape through the roof.
you didn't say "air tight"...

indigenous says

To make things more interesting, imagine the stadium is completely water-tight.

The question is, if a drop of water is added to the stadium and then one minute later it doubles in size to two drops, and then one minute after that it doubles again to 4 drops, and so on.. doubling in size every minute, how much time do you have to leave your seat and get out of the stadium before the water reaches your seat at the very top?

Think about it for a moment. Is it hours, days, weeks, months?

SoftShell says

depends on the temperature of the air.

each drop would evaporate given sufficient heat in a minute.

and would escape through the roof.

you didn't say "air tight"...

Doesn't change the point, a lot of people could be infected in short order.

then "we" are not doomed.

indigenous says

SoftShell says

If we are doomed, then no need for affairs to be in order.


they'll be no one around to appreciate it.

50% do survive

SoftShell says

then "we" are not doomed.

I think most people underestimate the danger in this.

maybe we could send the libtards to ebolaville to test the "marijuana as a vaccine" hypothesis.

Is it really exponential growth?.... or is it geometric growth?

turtledove says

Is it really exponential growth?

I think so

I wonder what the doctor's take would be?

Any math majors here? Is the variable discrete?

turtledove says

Any math majors here?

I was told there wan't going to be any math questions...

Call it Crazy says

turtledove says

Is it really exponential growth?.... or is it geometric growth?

You shouldn't give us math questions this late at night!

My apologies. I get caught up on the vocabulary sometimes. Not being a math major, I thought I'd ask... With all the techies on this site, I figured someone would know more about this than I do.

turtledove says

Is it really exponential growth?.... or is it geometric growth?

Depends what you are looking at.

The death toll will model a sigmoid while the infected population will peak, then crash.

Both exponential and geometric growth curves continue to infinity which obviously cannot happen here.

turtledove says

Any math majors here? Is the variable discrete?

It is exponential, the variable is not discrete. IOW be afraid be very afraid

http://modernsurvivalblog.com/pandemic/mindblowing-exponential-growth-of-a-pandemic/

bgamall4 says

He and Romney both employ Eugenics professors.

WTF, it has NOTHING to do with eugenics.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Romney said to his donors 'FORTY SEVEN PERCENT OF AMERICA MUST FUCKING DIE!'

He said that? Obama is doing it, like all good democrats they getting us killed wholesale.

i think it's geometric only in europe...

turtledove says

Is it really exponential growth?.... or is it geometric growth?

I don't think patrick permits bisexual solicitation here...

turtledove says

Is the variable discrete?

humanity says

Right wingers tend to be motivated by fear more than anything else, and this is going to be a very huge story by November

A tour of the conservative quote book:

1950s: "Communism is scary. We need to give up our rights to fight it."

1980s: "AIDS is scary. Isn't it time we gave up all our civil rights?"

2001: "Scary Muslims are scary - time to get rid of the Bill of Rights!"

2014: "Ebola!? The Constitution is not a suicide pact!"

All the time: "I am the only Constitutional person in America. The rest of you are a disappointment to the Founding Fathers. I'm really a libertarian because both parties are the same. People who give up liberty for safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!

"You people have no balls - no guts. Now if anyone wants me, I'll be hiding under my coffee table with my AR-15, wetting myself in fear of the coming Iranian attack."